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30/12/2012 6:39 pm
 
I first read of this terrible accident in a book titled 'Air Disasters-Dialog from the Black Box', by Stanley Stewart,but it is only after visiting this web site that I have begun to fully  realize the implication of certain events, including the change in the final way point and the confusion this caused the the flight crew.
There is one aspect that continues to puzzle me about Stanley Stewart's description of events leading up to the crash, and this concerns the apparent difficulty with radio communications with 'Mac Center' by flight 901. It appears from the book that the heading of flight 901 towards Mt. Erebus meant that communications with 'Mac Center' on VHF were being blocked by high ground ( Mt. Erebus), so that communications were only possible on HF radio. Successful VHF contact and transponder 'squawk' were only briefly achieved in the descent to the racetrack circuit which allowed line of sight to 'Mac Center'.

Were these comms. difficulties a significant factor in this accident?

 
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3/01/2013 9:29 pm
 
Definitely a significant factor.


"Mac Centre" was at McMurdo Station. The other radio installation was "the Tower", located by the runway. The radar was at the Tower, which only had VHF.

If you read the transcript, you'll see that the captain was offered a radar-assisted descent, which he gladly accepted. For the next ten minutes, the crew attempted to contact the Tower on VHF, without success. Radio communications in Antartica were notoriously unreliable, so the crew probably thought that the VHF radio was having an off day. Without VHF contact with the Tower, there could be no radar-assisted descent, so the captain should have baled out. Instead, he embarked on that racetrack circuit descent, without radar confirmation of his position (on the basis that he was visual, when he knew he wasn't). 

As regards the changed waypoint, that was obviously one of the causes of the accident - but so to was the captain's failure to comply with the basic rules of airmanship. If he had followed his own plan and not descended until his position had been confirmed by radar, the accident would not have occurred. Another point that is often overlooked is that the internal navigation system was not regarded as sufficient confirmation of position for a landing or for a descent below the height of a known hazard. The captain knew that, which is why he pretended to be visual.
 
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9/09/2015 5:47 am
 
Just seen this excellent post from a couple of years ago. Lots to comment on here

 oranmore wrote

If you read the transcript, you'll see that the captain was offered a radar-assisted descent, which he gladly accepted. For the next ten minutes, the crew attempted to contact the Tower on VHF, without success. Radio communications in Antartica were notoriously unreliable, so the crew probably thought that the VHF radio was having an off day. Without VHF contact with the Tower, there could be no radar-assisted descent, so the captain should have baled out. Instead, he embarked on that racetrack circuit descent, without radar confirmation of his position (on the basis that he was visual, when he knew he wasn't). 

As regards the changed waypoint, that was obviously one of the causes of the accident - but so to was the captain's failure to comply with the basic rules of airmanship. If he had followed his own plan and not descended until his position had been confirmed by radar, the accident would not have occurred. Another point that is often overlooked is that the internal navigation system was not regarded as sufficient confirmation of position for a landing or for a descent below the height of a known hazard. The captain knew that, which is why he pretended to be visual.


Firstly, I think the phrase "pretended to be visual" is doing Collins something of a disservice. It implies he deliberately made a farce of his own VFR descent. If you think about Collins's mindset - he is offered a radar guided descent and responds "crikey, that's what we want to hear". So he's excited, the flight is going to work after all. This feeling of relief would have been replaced, over the next ten minutes, with intense frustration due to the failure to raise VHF comms. Then, emotionally back again - he sees a break in the cloud and decides, without really stopping to think, to go for it. Yay!! We're still a go! At that moment he failed to discuss his plan with his colleagues, failed to recognise he wasn't going to be truly VFR, and forgot his own warning about it being hard to tell the difference between cloud and ice. He'd developed a case of "get-there-itis". An understandable, and often repeated human failing, but a failing nonetheless.

I suspect, as the descent progressed, Collins himself became increasingly unhappy with what he was doing. Certainly Brooks was, with his comment "I don't like this". Mahon tries to write off this comment as signifying unease only at the very instant the comment was uttered; but I believe this to be fanciful in the extreme.

The significance of the overlooked point of the internal navigation system as not being regarded sufficient confirmation of position for a landing or for a descent below the height of a known hazard, is very hard to convey to laymen. Mahon himself dismissed it as some sort of feeble, desperate clutching at straws by those that would seek to cast blame upon the crew; when actually nothing could be further from the truth.
 
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10/09/2015 5:48 am
 
Gasman wrote
So he's excited, the flight is going to work after all. This feeling of relief would have been replaced, over the next ten minutes, with intense frustration due to the failure to raise VHF comms. Then, emotionally back again - he sees a break in the cloud and decides, without really stopping to think, to go for it.

This is quite a bit of guesswork here.  Aside from the fact that the tower comms wrt "radar vectors" are listed only in the Chippindale transcript (which does pose a question as to their accuracy), he does not "[see] a break in the cloud and decides, without really stopping to think, to go for it", he backtracks around 15 miles NNE - back to where (as the passenger photos/films show) there was barely any cloud - and descends there.  The crew does not request radar vectors, but requests a VFR descent with radar supervision.

Mahon tries to write off this comment as signifying unease only at the very instant the comment was uttered; but I believe this to be fanciful in the extreme.

Whereas Chippindale deliberately doctored the CVR transcript to imply otherwise - no matter how you slice it, an action rather more worthy of criticism than anything Mahon did.

The underlying point required for understanding the RT scenario is this; The VHF equipment was in the same building as the ATC radar display - the HF equipment was in a different building manned by somebody else.  Radar guidance over RT was arranged such that the radar operator would transmit over VHF, and the HF operator was then supposed to repeat the instructions given over VHF.  Responses followed the same protocol in reverse, with the HF operator passing messages back from aircraft to the VHF/radar operator.

This is where things get hinky, because the relevant 5 minutes (or thereabouts) of the ATC log tape had been erased by the time the recovery crew (and Chippindale) arrived.

A side effect of this is that when looking at the Chippindale transcript (which combined the CVR and ATC tapes), it looks like the crew of TE901 are unconcerned with the fact that they have heard nothing from MacCentre for some time.  In truth, we have no idea as to what was going on between the VHF/radar and HF operators on duty for the five minutes leading up to impact.
 
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14/09/2015 6:56 am
 

blah blah blah

Did Captain Collins ever receive radar confirmation of his position?

Answer: No

Your turn.

 
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14/09/2015 6:44 pm
 
oranmore wrote

blah blah blah

Did Captain Collins ever receive radar confirmation of his position?

Answer: No

Your turn.



What oranmore is trying to say, is

- keep your posts concise
- stay on topic
- see the big picture rather than flying off on a never ending tapestry of tangents, searching for loopholes which ultimately lead nowhere.
 
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16/09/2015 11:56 pm
 
@Gasman:

With respect:
  1. I'm keeping things as concise as I can, bearing in mind that there are quite a few things to consider.
  2. I am on topic - and to be fair, it's a little troublesome to keep track of where one is when the person to whom you're responding keeps opening up new threads.
  3. I have apologised for the length of my posts, however when looking beyond the artificial limits imposed by ANZ and Chippindale's arguments, it's a matter of necessity to consider the whole thing at length.  The primary argument made (and which yourself and oranmore seem to support) consists of "These were the rules, here's where they broke them - that's why it was their fault".  The issue as I see it is that there's a lot of evidence to suggest that some of those rules may not in fact have been in force until after the fact, and that the regs which did exist were unfit for purpose.
Anyway, enough of that tangent (though I hope you'll accept it was necessary in order to respond to your points).

The question is not about what was *received*, because the evidence suggests the answer is "not much".   The question I think more important - and one we can't answer - is "what (if anything) was *transmitted* by the MacCentre radar/VHF operator and HF operator during the almost 5 missing minutes on the tape?", as well as "why was that part of the tape erased in the first place?".

I think it's important because given a hypothetical scenario in which the VHF/radar operator transmitted a warning - either that their radar response had disappeared or that their actual track appeared to be a dangerous one - and the HF operator failed to relay that message, that would be a big deal.

(Apropos of nothing - I'd like to point out that I've been going out of my way to be polite and not be riled.  I haven't criticised either of you directly - that we disagree is no problem as far as I'm concerned...)
 
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17/09/2015 7:24 pm
 

Exhibit 53 was a transcript prepared by First Officer Rhodes from a tape recording of what was said by the radio operators at Mac Centre and the Tower. I've re-read it and it doesn't appear to show a gap of the Watergate variety. Rather than there being a gap in the recording, there is a long period when the Tower was unable to contact the aircraft on VHF. Then, VHF contact with the Tower was established, but it only lasted for a short period.

According to the transcript, there was no attempt to warn the aircraft and there was no back and forth between Mac Centre and the Tower about the aircraft being in a dangerous position.

 
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